EU Referendum – We’re out! Does is matter??


It’s just been announced that the UK are leaving Europe this morning. 

TV, Social Media, and the internet have all fired off on the topic. But, what does this truly mean to us?

I share my vote, and my view in this short video. 

Check it out, and let me know your thoughts!

28 Comments

  • Felice Pazzo

    Reply Reply 24th June 2016

    [On Amazon] Spoken like a true stoic ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 25th June 2016

    I wish! ๐Ÿ™‚

  • weenie

    Reply Reply 26th June 2016

    Hi Huw
    Thanks for sharing your views. I voted Leave too and like you, it wasn't about immigration.
    Democracy has spoken, I'm glad I live in a country where we are able to vote. The times ahead will be difficult but they weren't exactly easy within the EU.

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 27th June 2016

    Very well put Weenie!

  • Anonymous

    Reply Reply 27th June 2016

    Strange for a TRUE FI seeker to vote to completely put into question the future of the UK and take a punt on who knows what. Good luck to you Sir, but for me, you are not thinking straight. Enjoy the meltdown you've voted for.

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 27th June 2016

    Hi 'Anonymous',

    Just out of interest, when do you think the financial uncertainty will end? 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20+ years or never?

    The UK economy will experience short to mid term volatility. That's about the only thing anyone can be sure of with the 'Leave' decision. The timescale is unknown. No-one, not you, not me, not Warren Buffet, not ANYONE – knows what the mid to long term impact of this decision will be. You might think you know, but you don't.

    A well diversified portfolio is unlikely to be impacted more by the EU referendum in 10-20 years than any other future election, REAL disaster, or bad news story. Investing is always impacted by the news. That's where the opportunities lie.

    I'm not sure about your FI plans, but I invest for the long term ie. 20-40 years. I don't believe the share price of stocks will be reflected by this decision in 20+ years. If I invested for the short term (under 5 years) I would be more concerned.

    When it comes to investing, I admire John Kingham's opinion just about more than anyone else I follow. His recent article explains his investment plan for the EU exit. Although, I could summarise it in his final comments – 'Keep clam and carry on'.

    http://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2016/06/brexit-investment-plan.html/

    It's a shame you didn't leave your name. I'd like to readdress this post in 5-10 years and see how it played out.

  • Anonymous

    Reply Reply 28th June 2016

    My name is kind of irrelevant as I won't be around the blog to redress the point in 5 years. I think you summed it up in your video, you openly admitted that you have no understanding of what the EU is and went on gut feel. My background is 30 years working in the commercial arena of trade through the globe, and although I wouldn't call myself an expert, it's better than gut feel to know that isolating yourself and going it alone in the world today is incredibly risky, especially when you have no plan. You may not have liked some of the laws the EU imposed on us, but you actually enjoyed the protection of the majority of those laws, you just didn't realise it was the EU that brought them about. Do you really think the EU will grant us the same deal or similar? If it did, then it would be the end of the union completely as the member states would all take the same. The world has changed a lot in the last 20 years, we now live in a global community and the UK has chosen to ignore it. The trouble with voting with your gut on a subject you admit you know nothing about, is reckless for a guy who clearly has the capacity to understand this stuff. Considering that actually what was presented before you on the run up to the referendum was actually very factual. I think the leave camp will now shout the "you see in 5-10 years" card which is pretty lame. The reality is, you still would have been better off with a better future remaining in. Yes the EU had faults, and lots of them, but on the whole it was good. We now have nothing, and the whole world has no real incentive to cut us a better deal.

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 28th June 2016

    It would be nice to review it in future, but nevermind. I class 'anonymous' remarks like yours cowardly. At least take some ownership of your opinion.

    You clearly know more about the EU than I do. I'm not going to dispute that, but unless behind your 'anonymous' status you're Mystic Meg, you nothing more about the future than I do. That isn't my opinion – THAT IS FACT. Nothing has pissed me off more than in the news, social media, or replying to Blog/Youtube comments than hearing people tell me what future I've created for them. No one knows!

    I've been told by many people that I'm too honest for my own good, and it's at times like this that I'd agree with them. By admitting that – I know very little about making the decision, and that I went largely with gut feel – I've presented myself as someone that didn't do the research or understand what I was doing. I did research, I did review both sides, and I couldn't find a compelling argument either way. The information I digested was only presented as fact. It just so happens that 'facts' weren't aligned.

    I suspect many other people went on intuition across the country, and I'm one of the few that's willing to admit it's influence. I know very little about it, far less than you and many others do, but I believe I know more about it than YOU believe I do.

    The EU might not offer the same deal. It might be far worse to trade from now on. What about the rest of the world??? Is the EU the only part of this planet that's worthy of our trade? Why are people so dismissive of that? I believe that by leaving we're opening ourselves up to more possibilities. Granted, we might have made one element (EU trade) more difficult, but I believe we've made the rest of the world much more accessible. Fair point or not??

    'You see in 5-10 years' is not lame. I stand by my decision, and vote the same way if I had to do it again. I don't fear the future, and by suggesting that in 5-10 years we'll care less about this decision than we do now is very probable. Don't speak in factual terms about what's going to happen when you don't know. Let's wait and see and then you can say 'I told you so' to me. Not before anything's happened.

    To suggest 'We now have nothing' is laughable. But at least you admit the EU had it's faults.

    We aren't going to agree, let's face it. I chose to quit working in the corporate world and fend for myself. 'NOW I HAVE NOTHING' could be one way to look at it, but I choose to embrace my freedom and flourish far more by doing so. I want to sustain myself, be responsible for my own live, and be fully accountable. The government will not decide how joyful my life is.

    You worked for 30 years in the commercial arena of trade. Our perspectives on making a living are likely to be quite different – Which is probably why we aren't going to see things the same way on this topic.

    You can live in terror and I'll just live in the moment. Have a good life Meg.

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 28th June 2016

    Hi Huw,
    I can't seem to make it work to put up a comment hence I am sending this via email – it took me a long time to do so last time I tried and I don't have the time to try more often than twice (as I already did). I need to see if I can find out how to do this though.

    Also, would yo be able to put up transcripts of your videos? I'm faster at reading than listening.- just saying.

    Regards, Pinch

    Comment starts

    Following the vote to LEAVE I had a look at both my SIPP and S&S ISA on Friday morning.

    SIPP capital value: -5.4%
    S&S ISA capital value: +4.8%

    Nothing to worry about there – totally normal.

    I was more interested in the fact that I was able to add a new holding 3% cheaper than it had been the day before. Then again, even this is just normal ups and downs in share price and nothing else.

    If you have an investment strategy/plan – just stick to it and carry on. If your investment strategy/plan is reliant on the UK having voted to REMAIN then you may need/should/want to review and maybe tweak this.

    Here's to your investing!

    Regars, Pinch

    Comment finishes

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 28th June 2016

    Hi Pinch,

    The voice of reason. Thank you for sharing your views. Well put.

    With regards to investing, and working towards FI – a vote either way cannot be classed as good or bad, over the long term as no-one knows. In the short term there will be some volatility for sure. But some people made a lot of money during the 2 x significant stock market crashes in the last 15 years.

    Here's to investing indeed!

    Huw

    PS. Currently, I won't be transcribing my videos due to the time it takes to do it. I plan on paying someone to take care of that for me in future (if the world doesn't end). Thank you for your feedback on it though. Perhaps I can write a little more in note form and meet you in the middle?

  • alans

    Reply Reply 29th June 2016

    Well put Huw, I have had this argument with a few people as they say things will take a down turn. The truth is no one knows for sure.

    People have short memories, we were told similar when we didnโ€™t take on the euro as a currency. It didnโ€™t do us any harm.

    If we do have a recession or housing market crash the foundations for this will have been laid whist in the EU!

    Its also worth noting we have had 4 recessions since joining the EU. We only had two in the 40 years previous to EU membership.

    There is also this idea from those behind remain that the EU is a force for good. Reading around I find this not to be the case.

    Fords transit production was moved to Turkey, using EU funding. Dysons production moved to malaysia, again with EU funding. All jobs that the Uk could have fought to keep had our hands not been tied.

    Kenya tried to import refined coffee beans into the EU and they promptly put a 7.5% levy on them. Reason being is much the roasting is done in germany. If we are not part of the EU we can do our own deals with non EU countries, most likely getting a better deal all round.

    I also think many remain votes were out of fear or short sighted thinking. You might have voted remain as your current job depends on an EU grant but what about 10 or 20 years from now?

    There is one factor with regard to immigration that no one seems to have thought of โ€“ automation. In the next 20 years many jobs will be lost to robots. Its happening now โ€“ look at the self check out in super markets and the advances in self driving cars.

    This will leave a large number of people without jobs. If we continue to enlarge our population we will have a major benefits problem to deal with.

    Are you still investing I used to follow that part of the blog quite closely.

    One last thing, as per the comment from Pinch I would love a short written transaction of your youtube videos as I often donโ€™t have the time to watch.

  • puthre

    Reply Reply 29th June 2016

    Do you always make your financial decisions uninformed and based on guts or this was an experiment? Because if this is the case I can't see how you can reach financial independence unless you are really really lucky.

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 29th June 2016

    Hi Alan,

    Thanks for sharing your views. It's refreshing to hear that not everyone's shitting their pants unnecessarily over stuff that's out of their control, and predicting the worlds end, when no-one actually knows what's going to happen.

    I'm aware that you're largely a self made man, well on their way to FI. So I'm not completely surprised by your optimism.

    I agree with much of what you've put here. I believe for all the other people that voted with some intuition, lies a chunk of people that voted remain due to fear – NOT EVERYONE, but some, no doubt.

    Interesting point on automation too. It is happening. Our local Morrisons has recently replaced 4 'manned' tills for the self serving checkout options instead. On top the 6 that are all ready in operation. I believe, like you, that we'll see even more of this across multiple businesses. If the population increases and the number of job decreases due to automation, this could result in an issue… Will that happen? I think it may (BUT I DON'T KNOW FOR SURE). If so, will that happen in 5 years, 10 or 50+? Who knows. There's plenty for us to shit our pants about if we sit down and think about it. I'd prefer to utilise my energy in other ways.

    Yes, I still invest. I don't write about it, because it bored me writing about my selections, looking at the numbers, and many other blogs are doing a great job with that format. I prefer to cover other topics, but thank you for your feedback! Out of interest, what did you want to see more of?

    Finally, thank you for backing up Pinch's point on providing a short transcript of the video. I will put that into action in future.

    All the best!
    Huw

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 29th June 2016

    Hi Puthre,

    Yes of course I use my gut feel for everything. Don't you?

    I consider Politics as important as everything else in my life. Despite that fact I have less than 0.001% control over how the country is run.

    Whether it's relationships, finances, or health, I just go on gut to be safe….

    I asked Lou out because she was the 3rd person to walk through the door at a pub one day. That's just seemed sensible.

    I select stocks just for fun by closing my eyes and pointing to a random company, and I play lucky dip lottery just to be safe.

    I take pills that I 'feel' will be good for me. You can't beat gut instinct can you!

    Thanks for leaving such an insightful comment.

  • alans

    Reply Reply 30th June 2016

    Hi Huw,

    What I found interesting was you had just started investing. I've gone down a different route with property but am well aware I really need to diversify. I found it much easier to understand watching you make your selections and giving the reasons why versus some of the other sites I read which just kind of said do this in a fairly general way.

    Your writing was fairly accessible for a reader with less knowledge. Some of the other sites drown you in acronyms and unfamiliar terms. I've usually pointed friends to your investing posts when I know they don't have much experience.

    It also reads more like a story so easier to follow. Not many people out there are willing to detail the full journey to FI from start to end. I liked watching your progress each month.

    I did consider blogging about my investing in property but its not great for regular updates. its usually save like crazy for two years buy something then repeat. With a few dull things like broken toilets and doors that won't lock in-between!

    Cheers
    Alan

  • puthre

    Reply Reply 30th June 2016

    Guts are the voice of the subconscious and you can rely on them when you have "played" enough with a certain domain that you've formed a very good intuition about it. You can choose stocks based on guts (that's certainly not random if you are not a novice), you will certainly choose your partner based on feelings and guts but I can't see how you can vote if your country should be part of the EU or not based on guts. You could certainly not create a good intuition about this issue as it is not something you are asked to choose frequently. So any choice your subconscious did was probably based on something as subjective as "I didn't like that guy's hair". But ignore my ranting, it is probably the result of my rage that as an EU citizen I've chosen to live in a country in which ordinary people are trusted to make decisions about sophisticated things like EU membership and that affects me directly.

  • Ellie

    Reply Reply 2nd July 2016

    'The Government will not decide how joyful my life will be'. Completely awesome quote

  • Ellie

    Reply Reply 2nd July 2016

    Loads of interesting comments on this post.

    I voted Remain but considered Leave for quite a while. I think the things a lot of Remainers are so angry about (me included) are the lies that were told to achieve the result and the fact that the whole thing seemed like a Dave/Boris old boy mating ritual rather than a genuine discussion about our membership of the EU. Even though I do see the benefits of Leave, I'm not sure we can really go ahead and do that given the circumstances around the result, as in the anti-immigation rhetoric and the false promises about NHS spending. I'm furious with how this vote has polarised the country and how dishonest everyone has been (Remain campaigners too).

    It wasn't very long ago we were laughing at the US for being so close to electing Trump, now look at us.

  • James

    Reply Reply 3rd July 2016

    Amazed that you could have voted in such a profoundly important referendum based on gut feeling without bothering to understand what was at stake (e.g. the very existence of the UK). Doesn't say much for your judgment as someone trying to reach FI and teach others about making good decisions! We now face years of extreme uncertainty and financial difficulties (including higher taxes, lower benefits and volatility), even if the country doesn't fall apart.

    It is disturbing also that you seem to display so little understanding of economic factors and think the outcome is 'nothing to worry about'. You seem to be unaware that the reason why most multi-national stocks in the FTSE 100 have gone up is because the pound has been severely devalued. In the long run those will be phantom gains for UK residents. Your comments about EU trade are even more bizarre – are you seriously unaware that we already had extremely favourable trade deals with the rest of the world via the EU? Those will now have to be renegotiated from a much weaker position, plus we have lost our say over rules within the EU single market, if we ever get access to that again post-Brexit. Suggest that you pay more attention to blogs such as Monevator which are written by someone light years ahead of you in terms of understanding. In the meantime, at least I know this is one blog I no longer need to bother reading.

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 3rd July 2016

    Thank you Alan. I appreciate your honest feedback!

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 3rd July 2016

    Thank you Ellie!

    How refreshing to hear someone that doesn't agree with my vote, voice their opinion in a respectful way and without getting personal. I wish others had considered the impact of their comments as much as you did.

    My 'lack of interest' in politics stems from not wanting to be involved with exaggeration, lies, and posturing. If people aren't honest with me, I lose all interest.

    I in turn agree with your sentiments on how it's polarised the country. It's very sad.

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 3rd July 2016

    Hi James,

    I have never confessed to be an expert in finance. Nor do I have the inclination to be. I am not, and never had, tried to teach people about finances. When it comes to Personal finance, I think I can hold my own in comparison to most folk but that's about it.

    My goal is to have enough money to not worry about money again. End of story.

    I'd like to think I've helped people on the way with this Blog, but that's not for me to say. I want to track my progress to help others understand what I've done. The Good, and especially the Bad. That's what this Blog is about.

    What are you disturbed about? A Blogger not fully understanding the economy? I can't say for sure, but I don't think I'm alone on that one. I'm not here to be an expert. I'm here as a real person sharing my journey. That is all…

    I recently re-read a chapter from the 4 Hour Work Week, from a friends recommendation (Thanks ED!), which explores what to do when you become FI. I'm likely to become FI within the next 12 months, and I was looking for some inspiration. (FI @ 35 isn't bad for a financial numpty like me, hey!)

    On the topic of 'The Meaning of Life' Tim shared his viewpoint in a simple sentence:

    "If you can't define it, or act upon it, forget it"

    I'm in total agreement.

    I CAN vote, but I struggled to define what it meant to vote for either side. I believe both parties did a poor job of this, and I lacked the inclination to find out more. I NEVER watch the news or read papers, and after Brexit – I'll keep to my strategy thanks.

    By voting, I'm 'acting', but in reality if I hadn't voted, the outcome would have been the same in any case. Whether we're in or out, or whether I vote or not – I still can't make decisions on running this country – So I forget about it. I get on with my life.

    My life and happiness are NOT determined by money, the economy, if we're in or out of the EU or whether your chose to read this Blog or not. I want to be happy, healthy, and contribute to other peoples lives. I'm a simple man. A 'wannabe stoic' if you want a label.

    I didn't ask for your reading suggestions. I don't need your help, thank you. You know not what I want in life, so you can keep your suggestions to yourself – if you were ever going to comment again.

    I do read Monevator as it happens. It's a great blog, but I'm not trying to be Monevator.

    I'm going to get back to my life now if that's OK with you.

    Your comments aside. I just hope you're happy and healthy. All the best!

  • weenie

    Reply Reply 4th July 2016

    "I'm likely to become FI within the next 12 months"

    FFWB40 (Financially Free Waaaaay Before 40!) ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 5th July 2016

    ๐Ÿ™‚

  • "Dysons production moved to malaysia, again with EU funding. All jobs that the Uk could have fought to keep had our hands not been tied. "

    Dyson was a big "Leave" supporter. It is(/was) hard to take the leave campaign seriously when people like this say one thing yet do another.

    Big business doesn't give a crap about where jobs are moved to it always just wants lower costs at all times, hence improving profits, hence improving your returns as a shareholder.

    This will be happening whether we are in the EU or not!!!

    On immigration and "If we continue to enlarge our population we will have a major benefits problem to deal with. " – The leave campaigners have already back tracked massively on immigration and it looks like practically free movement of people is likely to continue. (although to be fair Huw said that wasn't the reason he voted leave anyway so probably not really worth mentioning)

    @Huw – Fair play for putting your balls on the line there and being honest. I think you made a noose to hang yourself with commenters there by saying you went on gut feeling, I know that was probably a throw away comment and you did just as much research on it as the next man, and so probably taken out of context. I guess we all went with our gut decision at some level.

    I agree with you that it won't affect our lives very much and people are overblowing the situation big time. The thing is we are self driven and I dare to say slightly above average intelligence level individuals. I do fear that those who have it bad already (which is where a large part of the Leave vote seems to have come from) are actually in for a worse time, although as you say no one knows anything and I sure hope I'm wrong on that one. For the record I voted remain and was initially annoyed but have chilled out a bit on it now. Some of the stories that came out of it afterwards were infuriating though, Leave voters who's town gets millions in EU grants saying "What has the EU ever done for us" to just "Get em out" types etc… however that is just the media finding the thickest people they can to make a show of them and not fair to all Leave voters at all, although by the sheer number of examples it didn't seem those people were very hard to find ๐Ÿ™

    It's a shame people find it hard to realise that not all people in a group of 16 million think the same way though and clearly I don't count you in with that sort of mentality mate!

    Best case scenario for me is that we do actually start with as much of a clean slate as possible and get some progressive laws in such as Basic Universal Income, it might be a few years off and probably won't happen anyway but that is my (small) hope of what good might come out of this. Whether this is more likely with or without Brexit, we will never know!

  • BloodBuzz

    Reply Reply 3rd August 2016

    Also love the quote 'The Government will not decide how joyful my life will be' – maybe you need to get selling this on t-shirts and mugs haha

    Also – is there any news with FIRE Escape in September – is this still going ahead? – I think I read there is a facebook group somewhere for this as well? – thanks!

  • jiminyork

    Reply Reply 11th August 2016

    Wow, just catching up with some of the posts and am surprised to see some of the vitriol in the comments (or am I?) Good to see you giving as good as you're getting all the same! I voted "Leave" but, for what it's worth, my view was that if the European parliament continued to ignore the plight of some member states on immigration and economics then they were heading for a massive right wing backlash. Which Europe has seen before. Our "rebellion" against a remote Brussels, I hoped, would maybe make them think harder about where they're going. I wondered if all the Remainers would be so pro-European in ten years time if Marine Le Pen is leading France and similar parties dominated elsewhere? Because that's the way the trend is heading, in my opinion.

  • Huw Davies

    Reply Reply 12th August 2016

    Hey Jim,

    I hope all is well with you!

    Yeah, I decided not to reply to any further comments on my Youtube or Blog, as it all got a bit silly in the end. I wonder how many still feel as outraged and fearful as they did when they wrote the comments. Like you, I'm not surprised. When you put yourself out there like I do, and share your opinion on topics like this – despite not pushing a strong opinion – it attracts trolls, deluded, pompous pussies… what you gonna do?

    The topic totally bored me in the end, and reminded me why I hate politics. I'm so thankful for the Olympics, and I'm actually watching the news again! Having a focus on people dedicating their life to a craft, and pushing themselves, rising against adversity, and triumphing (or not) is how I like to utilise TV.

    I hope all is well is sunny Scotland!
    Huw

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